One Nation Poll Surge Continues as Andy Burnham Heads to UK Premiership
Recent polling shows One Nation gaining significant ground in Australia, while Andy Burnham is expected to become the next UK Prime Minister following a decisive byelection victory. These developments highlight shifting political landscapes both domestically and internationally.
Highlights
- •One Nation's primary vote has climbed to over 30% in recent national polls.
- •The Coalition has experienced a decline, altering the projected federal seat distribution.
- •Andy Burnham is set to become the next UK Prime Minister following a major byelection win.
- •New South Wales polls show One Nation surging ahead of the Coalition for the 2027 election.
Recent political polling indicates a significant shift in the electoral landscape as One Nation continues to gain momentum. According to the latest DemosAU and Morgan polls, the party has seen its primary vote rise, reaching 30% and 31.5% respectively. This upward trend follows the June 17 National Press Club address by Pauline Hanson, reflecting a notable change in voter sentiment.
Impact of Shifting Polls and Leadership
The DemosAU poll, which sampled 1,497 people between June 16 and June 18, highlighted that while One Nation has surged, the Coalition faced a five-point decline in support. These fluctuations have altered the projected seat distribution in the House of Representatives, potentially benefiting Labor. Meanwhile, the Morgan poll, conducted between June 15 and June 21 with 1,575 respondents, showed Labor leading One Nation by a narrow margin of 51–49 on preferences. Analysts are closely watching these figures as the next federal election approaches.
In other developments, the electoral commission is set to finalize seat allocations for each state and territory in July. Election expert Antony Green has confirmed that based on December 2025 population statistics, there will be no adjustments to the total number of state representatives. New South Wales remains the largest with 46 seats, followed by Victoria with 38 and Queensland with 30.
International Political Shifts
Beyond domestic concerns, the international stage has seen a significant transition in the United Kingdom. Andy Burnham, the current Mayor of Greater Manchester, is poised to become the next UK Prime Minister following a decisive byelection victory in Makerfield. Burnham secured 54.8% of the vote, defeating the populist right party, Reform. Current Labour leader Keir Starmer has announced his intention to resign once a successor is appointed, paving the way for Burnham to take office by mid-July.
Closer to home, the focus is also turning to the upcoming New South Wales state election scheduled for March 2027. A recent DemosAU survey of 1,038 voters suggests that One Nation is gaining significant traction, currently outperforming the Coalition in primary votes. With Labor at 32%, One Nation at 27%, and the Coalition at 20%, the political dynamics in New South Wales appear increasingly competitive. These shifts, both domestically and internationally, signal a period of notable transition for voters and political organizations alike.
