Weak Monsoon Forecast for India Amidst La Niña Exit
A weak monsoon forecast for India suggests a below-normal rainfall pattern across the country this year, impacting agriculture and daily life, particularly in regions like Punjab and Haryana.
Highlights
- •Weak monsoon with potential drought conditions
- •La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral state
- •Risk of El Niño intensifying later in the season
- •Lower rainfall predicted for August and September
New Delhi - The Meteorological Department has issued an alert, suggesting that the Southwest Monsoon for 2026 in India could be weaker than usual. According to Skymet, the onset of monsoon rains may start favorably but is expected to weaken over time. This prediction comes as La Niña conditions are ending and transitioning towards an ENSO-neutral state.
July Through September Projections
The first indicator of a potentially weaker monsoon is the projected rainfall distribution for specific months:
- June: Rainfall might reach 101% of Long Period Average (LPA), marking a normal start to the season.
- July and August: A decline may occur, with July seeing around 95% and August at approximately 92% LPA.
- September: The monsoon will likely weaken significantly, with expected rainfall just reaching 8% of the LPA for the final month.
This uneven distribution of rain could lead to drought-like conditions in parts of India. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are particularly vulnerable to lower-than-normal rainfall, especially during August and September.
According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director of Skymet, the transition from La Niña to an ENSO-neutral state may coincide with the development of El Niño conditions. This phenomenon could intensify in the latter half of the monsoon season, further affecting rainfall patterns.
