Indonesia’s Carbon Capture and Storage Strategy: Assessing Geological Safety and Risks

Indonesia is actively advancing a national strategy for carbon capture and storage (CCS/CCUS) as a key pillar for industrial decarbonization and new economic growth. With 16 projects currently under development and targeted for operation before 2030, the initiative aims to serve sectors with high emissions, including the cement and steel industries. By leveraging its vast geological capacity, Indonesia intends to position itself as a premier regional hub for carbon storage in the Asia-Pacific.

The nation possesses significant potential for underground storage, utilizing both saline aquifers and depleted oil and gas reservoirs. Estimates suggest capacities of approximately 680.57 gigatonnes in saline aquifers and 10.14 gigatonnes in existing reservoirs. While this infrastructure offers a promising pathway for meeting climate goals, the safety of carbon capture and storage relies heavily on the geological stability of the chosen sites.

Evaluating Geological Risks and Safety Protocols

Recent research focused on the Makassar Strait highlights that subsurface environments are dynamic and not always fully sealed. Even areas identified as having suitable caprock—the layer of dense rock that seals the storage reservoir—may present risks of gas migration. If these barriers are compromised, whether through naturally occurring fractures or structural weaknesses, the potential for leakage increases. Effective risk management requires rigorous site selection and long-term monitoring.

The movement of carbon dioxide underground is driven by buoyancy, necessitating precise characterization of the storage geology. Studies indicate that while stable geological formations can retain carbon for over 10,000 years with minimal leakage rates, the system remains subject to shifts in pressure and tectonic activity over time. Consequently, the assumption that subsurface storage is permanently static is scientifically incomplete. To ensure the integrity of these projects, authorities must implement continuous surveillance, such as geohazard surveys and periodic seismic testing, similar to the long-running Sleipner project in Norway.

Monitoring is vital to prevent environmental damage. Should significant leakage occur, it could lead to the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, neutralizing the climate benefits of the storage effort. Furthermore, CO2 infiltration into groundwater or marine environments can increase acidity, potentially threatening aquatic life and regional water quality. As Indonesia moves toward becoming a regional storage leader, the success of its carbon capture and storage operations must be anchored in empirical data and transparent geological monitoring rather than optimistic assumptions. Long-term safety depends on rigorous oversight and a deep understanding of subsurface dynamics to protect both the environment and the effectiveness of this global climate solution.