Political Polling: One Nation Leads Primary Votes Amid Stalled Growth Trends
Recent political polling indicates One Nation leads in primary votes but faces a growth plateau. Federal and state surveys reflect shifting support for Labor, the Coalition, and One Nation, highlighting voter dissatisfaction and changing priorities ahead of critical state elections in Victoria and Queensland.
Highlights
- •One Nation maintains a lead in national primary votes but shows signs of stagnating growth since the May 12 budget.
- •Labor continues to face significant pressure in state-level polling, particularly in Victoria and Queensland.
- •Voters express varying support for One Nation's policy proposals, including a controversial plan to strip taxpayer funding from the ABC.
- •Net approval ratings for major political leaders remain largely negative as parties prepare for upcoming state elections.
Current political polling data indicates that while One Nation continues to maintain a lead in primary votes, the party's momentum appears to have stalled since the federal budget announcement on May 12. Recent survey results show varying degrees of volatility, with some major polls highlighting a shift in voter preference away from the incumbent Labor party, particularly at the state level.
Analysis of Federal Polling Trends
According to a national YouGov survey conducted between June 9 and June 16, One Nation secured 28% of the primary vote, marking a slight decline of one point. In the same poll, Labor remained steady at 26%, while the Coalition saw a one-point increase to 21%. Despite the slight dip, One Nation remains a significant political force. Interestingly, a Morgan poll conducted from June 8 to June 14 reported One Nation holding firm at 29.5%, while Labor experienced a two-point rise to 28%.
Approval ratings for national leaders remain a point of contention. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of -25 in the YouGov data. Meanwhile, Angus Taylor of the Coalition saw his net approval drop to -10. Policy discussions also continue to influence public opinion, with One Nation's proposal to replace public funding for the ABC with a subscription-based model receiving support from 55% of respondents, though notably, only 7% of those supporters indicated a willingness to personally pay for such a service.
State-Level Political Shifts
Regional dynamics are also revealing significant changes. In the lead-up to the Victorian state election this November, a Resolve poll indicates that Labor and the Coalition are currently tied at 26% of the primary vote, with One Nation surging to 24%. Public sentiment regarding the current Victorian government remains critical, with a majority of respondents indicating they do not believe the administration deserves a fourth term.
The situation in Queensland is equally dramatic. Data from a Resolve poll suggests the Liberal National Party (LNP) holds 30% of the primary vote, while One Nation has surged by seven points to reach 24%, effectively competing with Labor, which dropped to 24%. In Western Australia, a DemosAU survey shows Labor maintains a lead with 33% of the primary vote despite a five-point drop. As these political polling trends evolve, the landscape for both state and federal leadership remains highly competitive and uncertain for all major parties involved.
